Want a Billion Dollar Asset With Your Name On The Door?

The path to 1B isn't what you think it is anymore.

Here I am at Asher’s hockey practice, but instead of watching my son play hockey which is what I should be doing …

I’m finishing the website for our investor’s Italy Trip :

But it doesn’t matter how many SuperBowl tickets or trips to Italy I offer people …

There are only two things every investor I know inevitably wants:

  1. They want to invest in a company that becomes a unicorn

  2. They want to invest in a company that goes public

Why? Because those are the stories that have the most sex appeal when you talk about them to other people … especially at parties.

And this Thursday at 10am PST, I’m going to take you behind the scenes of my billion-dollar baby I’m getting ready to take to public markets in 18-36 months depending on market conditions.

I know, I know. I’ve been talking a lot about my $200m money machine I’m building in Dallas…

But if you want to understand why I – and my investors – are so excited about this business, it’s not because our original forecast had us on track to become a $1bn asset in ~5 years (although they love that)…

And it’s not even because our product solves the current silicosis-crisis that potentially harms American workers:

No, the biggest reason people are getting so excited is because of one single competitive advantage – we can make our product using raw materials that are 100% domestically sourced!

  • No more Quartz from Chinese and Indian suppliers

  • No more high-cost plastic resins from South Korea and Germany

  • No more anything from Vietnam, India, Turkey or Brazil

USA MATERIALS ONLY.

And even though most people are either foaming at the mouth for Artificial Intelligence deas (or the typical high-priced SaaS company)...

There's a reason I’m investing in asset-heavy, next-generation manufacturing facilities instead of sinking my capital into some hot software company that’s potentially going to scale “to the moon” – asset-heavy stocks are trading at a discount to asset-light ones.

And whether you’re in sales, operations or capital investing, you want to make money the easy way; the key is to let the market do some of the work for you.

Because here’s the thing you have to understand about markets – they move in cycles. 

And not just the typical Boom Bust cycles that happen every 5-10 years…

Entire styles of investing go in and out of style every 10-20 years. Take a look:

  • Wave 1: High-Risk investing becomes a thing for large, low-risk firms.

  • Wave 2: Then Ultra-High-RIsk investing becomes a business called VC

  • Wave 3: Next, Docom’s happen and Crazyballs-High- Risk investing goes completely bananas

  • Wave 4: The Rise of the Unicorn

The “era” you’re probably most familiar with is the most recent:

When Silicon Valley mastered its most important narrative – The Myth of the Unicorn Factory.

Thanks to the magic of software (and wishful thinking), you too could get rich on the promises of untold future riches.

But here’s the problem with Silicon Valley…

The Unicorn Factory is Closed

According to Sam Lessin’s “The End of Factory Farmed Unicorns”...

The myth that Silicon Valley has the secret formula for making billion dollar assets out of thin air relied on one simple ingredient that didn’t really come true…

It relied on the assumption there would be infinite demand in public markets for these factory-farmed Unicorns after 7-10 years of being stuffed full of toxic money.

But wait a second Oren …. weren’t there a number of massive winners concentrated in the hands of the privileged few that were actually Unicorns? Of course there were. 

But the idea that betting on 10 companies to produce one winner was somehow a solid financial investment strategy is just ludicrous.

And more importantly, unless you’re a professional seed stage investor – who lives inside this silicon valley ecosystem – you have no business investing in these types of deals. 

So why is it I’m so confident I’ve discovered the formula to building a Billion Dollar Asset in the next five years?

Simple – instead of pretending like I can guess what the public markets are going to want 7-10 years from now…

I’m shooting for narratives I believe will perform well 18-36 months from today. 

It’s never been more obvious to me that asset-heavy businesses – especially American manufacturers who can source 100% domestically – are going to have a huge premium on their cashflows in the near future. 

In today’s market, our forecast $60m EBITDA in 2029 might only be valued at a 12x multiple (or ~$720m market cap) in public markets… and it might be valued at 22x and be north of a billion.

But one thing I know for sure is that the better AI becomes, the faster it will wipe out whatever moats software companies have. 

But for companies that are producing highly desirable, high-margin physical goods like we are… we think investors are going to place a premium multiple on our cashflows due to how much more defensible our position is. 

That’s why I’m 100% focused on investing in US-based manufacturing companies with next-generation IP that can source everything domestically. 

No, I’m not going to send you a replay of the meeting. If you want to see this deal, you need to show up to the call. 

See you on Thursday.

-Oren

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